Lower Kittitas County — Watchers of the Lower Kittitas County real estate market see the same sales figures and disagree only in timing — for some the recovery has already begun, but others say it’s down the road a bit.

Yet those recently contacted seem to agree the market’s comeback will be a slow one, but it will occur, eventually.

They also agree it’s a great time to buy, if you can get the financing in these troubled, economic times.

“We’ve seen the housing market collapse, but we’re seeing that it’s on the mend in Lower County,” said Rory Savage, owner of Windermere Real Estate/Ellensburg. “My hope is that it continues and starts to work up to the higher-priced homes.

“But, right now, we’re seeing more activity.”

Coming up?

Savage, a local real estate agent since 1985 in Ellensburg, said the recent uptick in sales is “up” compared to a recent low point in Lower County sales in the first quarter of 2009.

The activity Savage said he’s seeing is from first-time home buyers and those selling what he calls entry-level homes and mid-entry homes priced at more than $100,000 to around $200,000. Most of these homes have been reduced in price to match their current market value.

In January through March 2009, there were 41 sales of all types in Lower County — land, commercial property and homes — with most of them being residences, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Those first quarter 2009 sales were 45.3 percent less than the 75 sales recorded a year ago in first quarter 2008, and 55.4 percent less than the 92 sales of all types in Lower County in first quarter 2007. 

The sales in first quarter 2009 included six homes in January, eight homes in February and 18 houses in March.

In April, 23 homes were sold in Lower County, with the majority averaging at about $200,000.

The average price among most of the homes sold in Lower County in April 2008 was $234,000.

Countywide, there’s been a 13.3 percent drop in median home prices between first quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009, according to the Washington State University Center for Real Estate Research. 

“I think what we are seeing is the market beginning to recoup, and it’s starting at the lower-priced end of the market,” Savage said.

Longer recovery

Bob Hansen, commercial real estate broker for RE/MAX Community Realty in Ellensburg, said the recent slight upswing coincides with an increase in sales and interest that occurs every year in February and March after the bleaker winter months.

He said the recent residential sales are connected to lowered interest rates and first-time home buyers who have qualified for a loan or a federal program and who want to get in on the $8,000 tax credit available to them if they purchase.

Hansen thinks a slow, steady climb in the Lower County residential market won’t really start until late this year or in the first quarter of 2010.

Although prices have dropped, he said most Kittitas County and Pacific Northwest homes have held their value better than many other areas of the nation that have seen dramatic industrywide lay-offs and plummeting residential values.

Hansen said it has yet to be seen what lay-offs at Central Washington University and in school districts, state agencies and local governments will do to the local market.

He estimated full market recovery could take five to seven years.

Fellow RE/MAX real estate agent Roger Weaver is more optimistic. He believes the Lower County’s market recovery has either just started or will start later in the second quarter.

“It’s a perfect storm for the buyer,” Weaver said. “It’s a tremendous time to buy. Residential prices have been reduced or are going down. Basically, we’re having a sale with plenty of product selection.”

Some of the recent increase in sales have come from foreclosure sales and bank-approved “short sales,” or a sale for less than what is still owed on a home.

The state of Lower County’s commercial property market has Hansen more pessimistic. From what he’s read and researched, the local commercial market won’t begin improving until after the first quarter of 2011.

Before then, billions of dollars in commercial building mortgages will hit their renewal dates and many commercial operations won’t be able to meet the original loan conditions and won’t be able to refinance in light of plunging values.

Last fall, three commercial property deals in Lower County were withdrawn by the buyers because of the worsening economy. One could have brought new jobs to the Ellensburg area.

As of the end of April, Hansen knows of only two commercial land or building sales that have occurred so far in 2009.

“I’ve never seen a market like this in my 36 years in the real estate business,” Hansen said. “I’ve been through several recessions but nothing like this.”

Opportunity

Although “things don’t look g