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last modified 22-12-09.

Slower rebound seen in real estate market

by Mark Nielsen found at princegeorgecitizen.com Thursday, 27 August 2009

The B.C. Real Estate Association revised downward its 2009 prediction for the northern B.C. market in its third-quarter forecast released Thursday.

By the end of this year, it's now expected $73 million worth of single-family homes will have been sold in the region, based on sales of 3,480 units at an average price of $210,000, down from $88 million, based on 4,400 sales at $200,000 expected in the BCREA's fall forecast last October.

The BCREA also lowered expectations for all of the province's other Interior markets while simultaneously revising upward its predictions for the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island-Sunshine Coast markets and for the province as a whole.

"When we look at the provincial aggregate, we've seen a substantial rebound in home sales and that's being led by markets in the Lower Mainland and Victoria," BCREA economist Cameron Muir said.

"In the Interior markets and the North, market conditions are improving but at a more gradual pace, and that makes a lot of sense because in the B.C. Northern Real Estate Board area, which is very large, a lot of employment in the area is strongly oriented toward the resource sector and manufacturing base, and of course, those sectors are still feeling the fallout of the recession."
However, the BCREA is expecting a fairly uniform increase in both sales and average prices across the province for 2010. It's predicting the average sale price in northern B.C. will rise to $214,000 and the number of sales to increase to 3,800, adding up to $81.3 million.
That's still down from $89.7 million achieved over the course of 2008, based on sales of 4,038 units and an average price of $215,358, but last year's sale prices were record setting, BCREA Muir noted.

He expects the sales to active listings ratio will rise to the point where it's a balanced market, as opposed to a buyer's market, over the course of next year in most Interior markets, "and that bodes well for firming up of home prices."
Not only are interest rates at a low, but consumer confidence appears to be improving, Muir added.
The northern B.C. figures are for a region stretching roughly from 100 Mile House north to the Yukon border with the exception of the Dawson Creek-Chetwynd area. Third quarter numbers specific to Prince George are usually released in October.

mnielsen@pgcitizen.ca

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